El mercado en Marbella / Benahavís: más transacciones y precios bajando

El Ministerio de Fomento acaba de publicar el nuevo índice de precios para Marbella y Estepona mostrando una vez más una tendencia a la baja en el primer trimestre del 2014. Aunque los precios muestran signos de estabilización lo cierto es que todavía siguen bajando.

Casi a la vez, el Ministerio ha publicado los datos sobre las transacciones cerradas en Marbella y Benahavís mostrando un importante incremento. Qué conclusión podríamos sacar y como encajaría con el menor número de compradores que marcan las estadísticas? Podría no ser tan difícil: hay menos compradores pero los que hay están más predispuestos a comprar y siguen haciendo ofertas a la baja que se aceptan para poder cerrar. Si el mercado sigue esta misma tendencia con el número de transacciones al alza, el inventario seguirá bajando y, finalmente, los precios llegarán a su punto de inflexión y empezarán a subir. Mirando diferentes informes de expertos inmobiliarios, las fechas de una posible recuperación varían desde el final del 2015 al 2019 pero aún así creo que es difícil predecirlo. Había mucho optimismo en el principio de este año 2014 pero, ya es mitad de año, aún es muy complicado vender. En 2012 y 2013, el verano fue la mejor época, a ver si en este 2014 se repite.

The market in Marbella / Benahavis: more transactions & less price

The new price index for Marbella and Estepona have just been released by the Ministry of Housing showing again a low tendency in the first quarter of 2014. Although prices are showing signals of stabilization, the truth is that they are still falling down.

At the same time, the Ministry has released the data on the number of transactions closed in Marbella and Benahavis showing important increases. What would be then the conclusion and how does it fit with the reduced number of buyers we are noticing?

I think we have an easy one: there are less buyers but are more ready to buy and still making low offers for properties that are being accepted just to be able to close. If the market keeps on going in the same line, i.e. with the number of transactions increasing, the stocks will continue to go down and prices will finally reach the inflexion point and will start to rise. I have seen different reports from real estate experts giving different dates for the recovery (from the end of 2015 to 2019) but it is difficult to say. We were quite optimist for 2014 and, now, half of the year is gone and the market is still quite complicated. The summers of 2012 and 2013 were quite good and we hope that this year will be at least as good. Time will tell...

How is the real estate activity at Marbella & Benahavis in 2014?

Although the sense of optimism was great in the real estate field around Marbella at the beginning of this year, I am feeling lately that that sense has changed. Things are still quite tough and I have received many comments about how complicated is the market and about the reduced number of operations in the months of April and May. In fact, when talking yesterday with one of the big Notary offices of Marbella, they mentioned the same: a reduction in activity in the last two months.

To try to measure the activity, I have created two indexes based on the number of internet leads and visits per property and month and weighted depending on the type of property (villas will, in general, get let visits and leads than apartments) to get an idea of the tendency of the activity. The following is the chart obtained for those two indexes:

It shows clearly what has been my feeling during the year: a peak of activity at the end on February and beginning of March and a slow down since then. Why? I do not really know. The general economic situation is getting better all around Europe, the prices are flat in Marbella and the number of transactions rose last year meaning that the activity should have increased but it is not the case. As I said, we were quite optimistic with the start of the year but the numbers are showing the we have still to work hard to keep on closing operations. We will see in fifteen days with the official data on the transactions closed in Marbella in the first quarter if the general numbers are similar to the ones I am having: less activity but more closings. That has been my general impression along this year: there are less buyers but of better "quality".

Cumbre de los Almendros (Benahavís - Costa del Sol)

Luxury apartment for sale in Puerto del Almendro, Benahavís. Spacious and luminous is notable for its wonderful finishes in every detail, the modern baths and its fully fitted kitchen with top class appliances. Location is just perfect in a quiet complex at only 5 minutes to San Pedro de Alcantara and 9 to Puerto Banus. A modern living room with a large window that gives access to a generous terrace offering breathtaking views of the Mediterranean sea to enjoy the sun until nightfall.

July 24th, 2014

Dear Alfonso,

Thank you so much for the smooth sale of _______ this was needed because of the sad reason for sale. When I buy again I will most definitely use you and Remax.

Thanks again

Kind regards

JB